The November 2010 election was called by some, the Republican Tsunami. This wave gave Republicans one of the largest majorities ever enjoyed by one party in the House, and won the majority of Governorships and state houses throughout the country. The bad news for Obama is that it hasn't gone away, and he is poised to join the unemployment line along with Harry Reid.
Now, you might think I'm off my rocker considering some of the polling, but consider the following:
1. In almost every poll in the last two weeks, Romney has held a 10 point lead amongst the independents. In some swing states, that lead is as high as 23 points.
2. On who would you trust with the economy, Romney fairs better in almost every single poll with the most recent having Romney ahead on this issue for the past six weeks with margins above 4 points.
3. A combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012 shows Romney leading Obama by 4 or more points since October 18th. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
4. Enthusiasm is the biggest difference between 2008 and 2012. Most polling data has Dems +5 to +8, while new data is showing Republicans +1. That is a six to nine point swing. Well outside what all of the polling data is showing.
There is so much data out there, but these are key to determining who is in the lead. All indications point to a Romney landslide when the underlying data compares with the last two times and incumbent has lost.
One thing that should concern the Obama camp is that states that have heavily gone Democrat in the past, are now in play. And from comparing the above data to the most recent elections in Wisconsin, Romney has clear command and the number could easily match the 7 point win that Walker had in the recall.
Obama has all but conceded Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado. A win in Ohio and Wisconsin could mean that the electoral map will highly favor a Romney victory.
My prediction is Romney will win running away, 54-45, and capture above 300 electoral votes.
In the Senate, I see it swinging to a Republican majority, with Republicans picking up Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, Connie Mack in Florida, Rick Berg in North Dakota, George Allen in Virginia and Deb Fischer in Nebraska. Montana could also go Republican, which would put the Republicans at 53.
The House will remain heavily Republican.
All in all, the Republicans will be dealt the same hand or worse as Obama. High unemployment, reeling deficit spending, poor economy and turmoil in the Middle East. What they do with that majority is what really matters.
For now, the Republican Tsunami continues.