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After the Conventions: Who Will Win the 2012 Presidential Election, Obama or Romney?

Now that the Democratic and Republican delegates have officially chosen their nominees, Patch wants to know: Who is going to win in November?

It's official: With President Barack Obama having given his acceptance speech in Charlotte Thursday night, both the Republicans and Democrats have formally chosen their nominees for the 2012 presidential election. Let the real race begin.

A lot can change between now and Nov. 6: Gaffes, scandals or even major international news events could shift the dynamics of the campaign.

The latest Gallup Polls show registered voters preferring Obama to Mitt Romney by just one percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent. A USA Today/Gallup poll taken just before the party conventions found American voters think Obama is more likeable, but trust Romney more to handle the economy.

Pundits have been busy for months handicapping the major-party candidates on various factors: incumbent advantage, fundraising clout, even religion.

Patch wants to know: Regardless of who you support for President, who do you think will actually claim victory in November?

Vote in our poll below, and let us know your reasoning in the comments.

James R Hoffa September 10, 2012 at 06:12 pm
@Brittany -
Obama flipped on some pretty core values and hard decisions - gay marriage, closing Gitmo, halfing the deficit, raising taxes on the middle class, ending the wars on day 1, no mandate in his health care law, broadcasting WH meetings on C-SPAN 3, etc. Attack Romney while giving Obama a pass - please, your hypocrisy and double standards are astonishing!
morninmist September 10, 2012 at 06:20 pm
@hoff
Well Hoff, the lefty liberal -The Nation still reports on your Right leaning Rassy poll: "Monday The first of today’s daily tracking polls is out and GOP-friendly Rasmussen continues to find a post-DNC surge for Obama, with the president widening his lead over Romney to 5 percent, the highest mark for him since last March."
Bren September 10, 2012 at 06:35 pm
But Anti, don't we have election controls for just that purpose? It's only the need for instant news gratification that gets numbers on the boards so quickly. Think of what a non-issue Kathy Nicklaus' "I forgot Brookfield" controversy would have been if the numbers had been posted only after errors had been checked.
If the cookie-cutter Voter ID bills making the rounds hadn't been penned by ALEC, perhaps I wouldn't be so cynical for their raisons d'être. As it is, the fewer people voting/paying attention = more shenanigans, to my way of thinking. Just what we need right now. More shenanigans.
morninmist September 10, 2012 at 06:52 pm
Hoffa
That Obama bump is making Mitt sound desperate-Not wise of Romney to do this! ThinkProgress ‏@thinkprogress In new stump speech, Romney suggests Obama is anti-God. Watch: http://thkpr.gs/PjriNE
Dirk Gutzmiller September 10, 2012 at 07:40 pm
Hoffa - There is more than one kind of Conservative, not just radical conservatives that want to make extreme changes and which might make matters much worse. Throwing the car into reverse while cruising along the highway is going to be a risky shift. And mix that with social conservatism For US social conservatives, Christian based religions -- often Evangelical Christianity and Mormonism -- guides all political positions on social issues. The type of conservatvism I am describing does prefer maintaining the steadily improving current situation over untested theories and avoiding a scary return to the Dark Ages of social restrictions, prohibitions, and severe punishments for violating someone else's.moral edicts.
morninmist September 10, 2012 at 07:48 pm
Heads up. A NEW CNN poll
PaulPimentel ‏@PaulPimentel Obama CRUSHING Mittens in new polls. http://bit.ly/Pc1Ztt #p2 #wiunion #mapoli #forward2012 #tcot #teaparty #p2 #ctl
James R Hoffa September 10, 2012 at 07:53 pm
@Dirk -
"... avoiding a scary return to the Dark Ages of social restrictions, prohibitions, and severe punishments for violating someone else's.moral edicts." Could you give us an example of how Republicans supposedly want to do this?
FreeThought Troy September 10, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Deport where? Back to Hawaii -where he was born?
Don't start that birth-er nonsense here.
FreeThought Troy September 10, 2012 at 11:53 pm
@Scot- "I'm not sure Obama has not destroyed this country. The debt has gone up more under Obama than it did in 8 years of Bush."
That's a lie. That is a flat out lie.
FreeThought Troy September 10, 2012 at 11:59 pm
@Scot - "We know what has happened under Obama. We have seen our debt grow more in less than 4 years than it did in 8 years of Bush. "
Again, that is a lie. It's a flat out lie. I know it is the Republican way a la Fox News, but in the real world. Saying the lie over and over again doesn't make it true It is a lie.
FreeThought Troy September 11, 2012 at 12:05 am
@ Warriors Mom-"We need to get our country back & be feared again not laughed at by other countries." Why is fear such an all consuming good thing?
Ok though, I'll play along. You think the world laughs at us for Osama bin Laden or other other Al Quaeda lieutenants we put a hit on? Gas prices will go down when we break our dependence on fossil fuels and the demand goes down. Or we begin to <gasp> regulate the industry a little to curb speculation.
Keith Best September 11, 2012 at 01:10 am
That's what they said about Carter vs. Reagan this far out from the election.
History has a way of repeating itself............
Scot Bartels September 11, 2012 at 08:16 pm
@C. Gaeta: I only read your first sentence because (frankly) after that I realized you had no clue what you were talking about. When G. Bush took office the national debt was $5,727,776,738,304 and when he left office it was $10,626,877,048,913. That would be an increase of about $4.8 trillion in 8 years. The $11 trillion debt did not get added under Bush's watch. Since Obama has been President he has already added more than that to the debt. The national debt now is above $16 trillion. So under Obama the national debt has gone up over $5 trillion in less than 4 years.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10959884/1/national-debt-a-look-at-presidents-tabs.html
Scot Bartels September 11, 2012 at 08:23 pm
@FreeThought Troy: Under Bush the national debt went up $4.8 trillion in 8 years. So far under Obama the national debt has gone up over $5 trillion in less than 4 years. Simply calling something a lie does not make it a lie. If you disagree with these numbers by all means please post what you THINK they are.
Scot Bartels September 11, 2012 at 08:30 pm
It gets so hard to follow conversations when there are so many comments..... I also don't know why you cannot reply to someone who already replied to another comment. Sorry. Just venting. LOL
mau September 11, 2012 at 08:40 pm
Prior to the last update of The Patch, when you clicked on a link in the email notice, it took you right to the comment. Now it just takes you to the entire blog and you have to search.
FreeThought Troy September 12, 2012 at 01:00 pm
Here are the average spending increases per year in raw dollars (not adjusted for inflation)
Ronald Wilson Reagan: 8.6 (Saint Ron... here is where I started as all the Tea Party Conservative worship him) George Herbert Walker Bush: 5.8 William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton: 4.0 -hmmmm lower George Walker Bush: 10.2 - WOW such a spike for a "Fiscal Conservative" Barack Hussein Obama: 1.4 - that's 8.8% difference in spending. And that is after the President started including the Iraq War to the Budget - some thing Bush 43 did not do. all from the Liberal Media (not really) that is Politifact Thus my premise that placing blame on the President for our debt is a lie.
Michael McClusky September 12, 2012 at 05:28 pm
@Hoffa There is a front page article in "The Economist" concerning the worldwide growth of protectionism. Electoral backlash is a cause of this. Brazil has raised tariffs on 100 items; the US, India and China are currently involved in a trade war concerning steel. Actual worldwide trade has declined this year. Free trade is not all that it is cracked up to be.
Scot Bartels September 12, 2012 at 09:39 pm
@FreeThought Troy: Clearly Troy you do not do much thinking. You point to percentages but they do not do a good job of pointing out how much actual money the debt has gone up. As I said before, the national debt went up $4.8 trillion during the 8 years of Bush. So far under Obama the national debt has gone up over $5 trillion in less than 4 years. I didn't think I needed to point this out but $5 trillion IS MORE than $4.8 trillion. This makes me think that either you are intentionally trying to mislead people or you simply do not understand basic math and percentages. If you have a debt of $100 and you increase your debt by $50, that would be a 50% increase. If you have a debt of $10,000 and you increase your debt by 50%, that would be an increase of $5,000. Both increases are 50% but clearly $5,000 is MORE than $50. Using percentages do not show how much the debt has gone up. So tell me Troy. Are you simply trying to mislead people or are you simply ignorant of basic math? $5 trillion (in less than 4 years) IS MORE than $4.8 trillion (in 8 years).
Scot Bartels September 12, 2012 at 09:46 pm
After 8 years of Bush the national debt went up $4.8 trillion. So far under Obama (less than 4 years) the national debt has gone up over $5 trillion.
morninmist September 12, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Mitt put his big foot in his big mouth and today he doubled down on his stupidity!
Top Conservative Cat ‏@TeaPartyCat That awkward moment when Mitt Romney criticizes the President with a lie and not one elected GOP official will back him up.
morninmist September 12, 2012 at 10:16 pm
Fox is having a meltdown no doubt. They will make up more lies for their viewers.
TPM Livewire ‏@TPMLiveWire Fox Poll: Obama By 5 Points, Tied With Romney On Economy http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/fox-poll-obama-by-5-points-tied-with via @kyleleighton
FreeThought Troy September 13, 2012 at 12:56 pm
@Scot- I do apologize. For the longest time all I heard about was Obama's spending. Once it was verified it was the lowest in decades, the conversation shifted to debt overall - never mind the first step in addressing debt is addressing spending.
So if debt is now the cup of tea of the day, does that mean you are ready to realistically discuss revenues as well as cuts? I didn't think so, either.
FreeThought Troy September 13, 2012 at 01:02 pm
@ Scot - "Can you give me something good that he has done?"
1) Auto Bailout. GM is number one in the world & Chrystler is showing record profits. 2) Assasination of Osama bin Laden 3) Repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell 4) Establishment of Consumer Protection There are four things just for you.
FreeThought Troy September 13, 2012 at 01:09 pm
@Anti-Alinsky - Haven't you been reading the posts (Tea Party Conservative reading fact... I know, I know.... doesn't really happen, does it)?
Governement spending has only increased 1.4%. Where on earth did you come up with 27% - your own troubled mind or the fictional reality that is Fox News?
oak creek resident September 13, 2012 at 04:44 pm
@Scot, Nothought Boy
Scot, exuse nothought boy, he doesn't understand the differences between spending, revenues, debt, etc. Nothought boy needs to stop playing video games in mommy's basement so late and get a real job and education.
ace September 13, 2012 at 06:33 pm
Is Imam Obama going to be joining the Palestenians in celebrating this tragedy?
Will the Imam be dancing in the streets and giving away sweets as well? Another world apology tour pehaps?
FreeThought Troy September 13, 2012 at 06:54 pm
ace - ace - ace
I JUST got done bowing to your grace and intellecence. I mean, jumping on the tail end of an argument with such compelling data like I am a punk bitch. And now back to reality by showing what a truly despicable racist you really are. It's beyond description, really. You should thank the non existent god in the heavens you really don't have an Imam as your leader. There is no way you would be walking around free right now.
Scot Bartels September 13, 2012 at 08:44 pm
So in other words Troy when I said the national DEBT has gone up MORE in less than 4 years of Obama than it did in 8 years of Bush I was not lying. Maybe you do understand math but just don't read very well. Maybe you can tell me why Obama and the Dems did not fix the deficit/spending/debt issue when he was first elected into office?
Mike Knight September 16, 2012 at 04:29 pm
Barry Carter....I mean Barry Obama makes Jimmy Carter look like a pro President. Romney should easily win by a landslide against an amateur screw up like Obama. Unfortunately there's a large amount of the populace that is dumbed down, and obsessed with celebrity worship. Barry has done a lot to insinuate himself into the pop culture so these moronic masses who haven't been directly effected by Barry's bull think he's cool and will unfortunately vote for him. I guarantee they'll be effected by a second term of the worst President in US history! Once let loose free of re-election worries the USA will delve into the dark shadows of tyrannical hell.

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